What the seasonality research found
- BJS analysis of National Crime Victimization Survey data found statistically significant seasonal patterns, with higher rates in summer for several violent and household crime categories.
- Household burglary shows some of the clearer summer patterning, plausibly tied to vacancy and open windows.
- Some offense categories show no meaningful seasonality at all.
- Effect sizes are modest. Season is a weaker predictor than day of week, time of day, or location.
Why summer, plausibly
The leading explanations are behavioral rather than thermal: longer days and warmer evenings mean more people outside, more social contact, more alcohol, more unoccupied homes during vacations, and more teenagers out of school. Routine activity theory explains most of the pattern without needing heat to make anyone violent.
What it looks like from a bail desk
Our call volume follows holidays and weekends more than it follows the calendar season — the Fourth of July, Labor Day weekend, and any three-day weekend generate more bookings than an ordinary week in August. That pattern is DUI and public-order driven. See fireworks and a safe Fourth of July.